Duterte ratings 'falling a little faster than average’ – SWS president
MANILA, Philippines – President Rodrigo Duterte still has a "long way" to go before he can match the popularity of some of his predecessors, especially former president Benigno Aquino III, Social Weather Stations president Mahar Mangahas said on Tuesday, October 10.
Mangahas made the statement in an interview on ANC’s Headstart, when asked whether the 18-point drop in Duterte’s net satisfaction rating – from +66 in June to +48 in September – should be a “wake-up” call for the Chief Executive.
“I won’t know about the term ‘wake-up call’….Let’s just look at the pattern over time. Well, I would just say that the fall is a little bit faster than average, compared to past presidents," he said. (READ: Understanding the big drop in President Duterte's ratings)
Mangahas said that compared to the satisfaction ratings of some past presidents, Duterte’s performance, as perceived by Filipinos today, is “better than Erap but not as good as Cory, Ramos, or Noynoy.”
Mangahas said with a "good" +48 net satisfaction rating, however, Duterte is still “in the honeymoon stage of his term.
The SWS terminology for net satisfaction and net trust ratings are the following: +70 and above, “excellent”; +50 to +69, “very good”; +30 to +49, “good”; +10 to +29, “moderate”, +9 to –9, “neutral”; –10 to –29, “poor”; –30 to –49, “bad”; –50 to –69, “very bad”; –70 and below, “execrable.” SWS considers the movement from one classification to another as either an “upgrade” or “downgrade.”
Longest, shortest honeymoon
He said that based on presidential satisfaction ratings over the years, former president Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III enjoyed the "longest honeymoon" as chief executive.
“Using that [SWS terminology] as the honeymoon stage, then the longest honeymoon was Noynoy Aquino’s honeymoon – more than 3 years honeymoon….The shortest was Erap’s, one year,” Mangahas said.
The net satisfaction rating of then president Joseph Estrada, who took office in 1998, plunged from a “very good” +65 in March 1999 to a “moderate” +28 in October 1999.
Mangahas said he did not include former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for comparison since she “didn’t have a honeymoon period.” Arroyo, who took over from Estrada after he was ousted through Edsa People Power 2 in January 2001, obtained a “moderate” net satisfaction rating of +24 in March 2001, her first quarter in office. She only got a “good” rating of +30 in March 2004, ahead of the presidential elections.
“At least President Duterte has already exceeded Erap. He has not exceeded Ramos, Cory, and definitely, he has not exceeded PNoy because PNoy had the best of it all. He [Duterte] has to maintain it for two more years before he can say that he’s as popular as others before him,” Mangahas said.
“So it’s not something to be proud about yet. Of course, if he can continue to match the records of Cory, Ramos, and Noynoy, then it’s something to talk about but it’s still only his second year,” he added.
Like her son, Cory Aquino enjoyed a long honeymoon too as chief executive, with an average net satisfaction rating of +57 in her second year in office.
Her successor, Fidel Ramos, obtained consistent “very good” net satisfaction ratings two years into his term or until August 1994, when it was at +50.
In the case of Noynoy Aquino, his net satisfaction was at +56 in September 2011. He enjoyed “very good” satisfaction ratings until June 2013, or 3 years into his term, and had consistently “good ratings” until December 2014 or before the Mamasapano incident that continued to hound him after he stepped down in 2016.
“In 2011, in September, PNoy was +56; +58 in December (2011). He was still +49 in early 2012. So President Duterte has to stay this way until the 1st quarter of next year just to stay apace with Presdent Noynoy Aquino….There's a long way [to go] for President Duterte to even match his predecessors,” Mangahas said.
Asked whether the extrajudicial killings in Duterte's drug war played a factor in the eroded ratings, he said: “All the presidents, their ratings go down. I wouldn’t say that there has to be something violent that happens, but when there’s something violent, that's the worst, like the EJKs. That [rating] probably would not have been that low if not for these things.”
On Malacañang’s statement that the survey results showed that the "love is still there" for the President, Mangahas said: “That’s a nice term but we don’t use ‘love’ in our survey. Maybe a president is not really supposed to expect love; he’s supposed to expect respect. He’s supposed to give satisfactory service.”
When asked, Mangahas said the questions asked in the SWS satisfaction and trust polls have remained unchanged. – Rappler.com