TIMELINE: Duterte's threats to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement
MANILA, Philippines – After lashing out at the United States for weeks, President Rodrigo Duterte moved to formally end the Philippines' Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US, taking his dislike for the country's old ally a notch further.
Upon Duterte's orders, Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr signed on Tuesday, February 11, the Duterte government's notice that it was terminating the VFA, triggering a 180-day or 6-month countdown until the agreement would formally end.
Some analysts say Duterte's latest move could serve to actualize his pivot to China, which continued its expansionist clams in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea.
No less than Locsin, along with Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, warned of the far-reaching consequences abrogating the VFA would have not only on the country's defense, but also its relations with other US-allied countries.
How did we get here?
January 23, 2020
Duterte renews threats to terminate the VFA, prompted by his anger over the US government's decision to cancel the visa of Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa. Dela Rosa is Duterte's first Philippine National Police chief known as the architect behind the government's bloody anti-drug campaign.
"I'm warning you, this is the first time: 'pag hindi ninyo ginawa ang correction diyan, I will terminate the basis of Visiting Forces Agreement. Tapusin ko'ng putang inang 'yan," Duterte says in a curse-laden speech before former rebels in Leyte.
(I'm giving you this first warning: if you don't correct [what you've done], I will terminate the basis of the Visiting Forces Agreement. I'll end that son of a bitch.)
This is not the first time Duterte threatened to terminate the VFA. Earlier in 2016, Duterte warned he would scrap the VFA after the US did not renew an aid package for the Philippines.
January 24, 2020
Locsin hails Duterte's threats against the US as a "good move." The DFA chief says doing so tests whether or not the US is "serious" about its military alliance with the Philippines.
Locsin likewise puts Duterte's words into motion as he announces he will start the "process" of terminating the VFA.
Good move. Visas fall under US Justice Department in the Executive Branch. Either they're serious about US-PH military alliance or not. They can have de Lima after her trial. In fact they can pass a law making her a US citizen and part of US military so she is covered by VFA. https://t.co/KlmZyTEvqb— Teddy Locsin Jr. (@teddyboylocsin) January 24, 2020
Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra follows suit, saying the Department of Justice (DOJ) was studying the "proper procedure" to terminate the VFA.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana declines to take a position on the matter, saying only that he "understood" why Duterte was angered by the cancelation of Dela Rosa's visa.
For Lorenzana, cancelling Dela's Rosa's visa can be seen as a "direct affront" to Duterte's controversial anti-illegal drug campaign. With Duterte's threats, the defense chief says "the ball is in the US' hands."
"He ordered Bato, then the newly installed Chief PNP [Philippine National Police], to launch the drug war and enjoined the entire PNP to do their duties and pledged to would back them up. That he would take responsibility for their official actions. That he would go to prison for them. He is just being true to his promise," Lorenza says.
"Let’s see how they react to PRRD’s [President Rodrigo Roa Duterte's] statement," he adds.
At the Senate, lawmakers claim there is no need for Senate concurrence to terminate the VFA. While Senate rarification was needed to make the VFA valid (which the Senate did during the Erap presidency), senators say it can now be terminated without concurrence of the Senate.
January 25, 2020
Although quick to the draw to terminate the VFA, Guevarra now says a separate study is needed to explore its effects on other defense agreements with the US. These include the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) and 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
Guevarra says the DOJ will also submit to Duterte its legal memorandum on the proper procedures to terminate the VFA. The justice secretary says the memorandum will "deal with the procedure for termination only, not the wisdom of the executive action."
January 27, 2020
The Duterte government takes a step back and says it is preparing a report on the potential impact of such were the Philippines to move forward with the decision.
Guevarra says Malacañang ordered the "preliminary impact assessment on the possible termination of the VFA," including its effects on other PH-US defense agreements.
Meanwhile, former foreign secretary Albert Del Rosario urges Duterte to accept US President Donald Trump's invitation to attend its special summit with Southeast Asian leaders, if only to conduct talks on the Philippines' bilateral relations with the United States.
Del Rosario says that while the VFA is "imperfect," it is "essential" for the two countries' decades-old defense alliance. He warns that that terminating the VFA would actualize the Philippines' pivot to China, "against the strong and vehement objections of our people."
Malacañang rejects Del Rosario's advice. According to Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo, "The President knows what he is doing."
At a press conference with reporters, Panelo downplays the possibility of the US terminating other military treaties with the Philippines following the Duterte government's efforts to start the process of terminating the VFA.
He says the Duterte administration was not concerned with such a fallout, seeing as it was "in the realm of speculation" and that Duterte's decision to do so was "studied response."
January 29, 2020
Lawmakers at the House of Representatives criticize Duterte’s threat to terminate the VFA, calling it a “knee-jerk” reaction that endangered national security. They appeal to DFA officials to provide sound recommendations to Duterte.
Senators announce they will review the VFA, MDT, and EDCA. Senate foreign relations committee chairman Senator Aquilino Pimentel III says it is high time to review the VFA, given that the Senate has legislative oversight on the agreement.
At an ambush interview on the sidelines of the Department of Social Welfare and Development's founding anniversary, Duterte announces he is barring Cabinet members from traveling to the US.
"I will not allow any Cabinet member to go there at this time. No Cabinet member should be allowed to go to the United States...indefinitely," Duerte says.
With no Cabinet-level official making trips to the US, Duterte says he will "limit" the Philippines' interaction in "whatever aspect of international relations would be discussed or subject to talks."
"Parang boycott (It's like a boycott)," Duterte says.
The President also reiterates he is bent on terminating the VFA. He says his decision to do so was not solely based on Dela Rosa's canceled visa, but was also anchored on the US Senate's adoption of a resolution that seeks Global Magnitsky Act sanctions against Philippine officials involved in extrajudicial killings and the detention of Senator Leila de Lima.
February 3, 2020
US Ambassador to the Philippines Sung Kim marks the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the University of Santo Tomas (UST) in Manila during World War II. In his remarks, the ambassador does not explicitly mention the VFA.
Kim only emphasizes the benefits of US troops’ presence and cooperation in the Philippines, sanctioned by the agreement.
“The alliance remains as important today as it was 75 years ago,” Kim says.
February 6, 2020
The Senate holds a hearing on the VFA, as well as the country's other defense agreements with the US.
Before a Senate panel, Locsin warns against the far-reaching consequences and risks the Philippines may face were it to abrogate its VFA with the US. He pushes for a review of the agreement, rather than its outright revocation.
In a 20-minute speech before senators, the DFA chief highlights how the VFA has served as a deterrent to Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea; facilitated assistance in huge disasters; helped the Philippine military modernize and combat terror; and promoted economic ties not only with the US but its allies.
Locsin discloses Duterte's renewed threats to scrap the two countries' long-standing military pact were made without consulting him or Lorenzana.
He adds that while it is the President's prerogative to end it, "the continuance of the agreement is deemed to be more beneficial to the Philippines compared to any benefits were it to be terminated."
February 7, 2020
Defying warnings issued by his top security and foreign affairs officials, Duterte remains set on scrapping the VFA.
Panelo says Duterte "is instructing" Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea to inform Locsin Jr of his order.
February 8, 2020
Lorenzana refutes news Dutere has ordered Locsin to send the US notice the Philippines was terminating the VFA as “fake news.”
Asked whether or not Locsin has been issued an official order Lorenzana tells reporters, “Yes, according to Sec Medialdea! None. Nada. Zilch. Awan. Wala! Anggapo.”
February 10, 2020
Senators adopt a resolution urging Duterte to reconsider his decision to scrap the VFA. Withdrawing from the VFA, they say, must be “reviewed seriously” to make sure it would not affect the security and economy of the Philippines and other countries in the Asia Pacific.
Only Dela Rosa abstains from voting on the resolution.
Meanwhile, speaking before local chief executives, Duterte deviates from his prepared remarks on the 2019 novel coronavirus as he doubles down on threats to terminate the VFA.
Duterte says US President Donald Trump, along with other top officials, were trying to prevent the abrogation of the VFA, though he was bent on carrying out.
"I'll make it public because public official ako: Si Trump pati 'yung others are trying to save the Visiting Forces Agreement. Sabi ko, ayaw ko. One [reason] is that, napakabastos na 'yung Amerikano. Talagang sobrang bastos," Duterte said in a speech before local chief executives.
(I'll make it public since I'm a public official: Trump and the others are trying to save the Visiting Forces Agreement. I said I don't want to. One reason is that the Americans are very rude. They are extremely rude.)
February 11, 2020
The Philippines sends the US formal notice it is terminating the VFA.
Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo says in a news briefing that Locsin signed the Philippines’ notice of termination and sent it to the US government.
"The Executive Secretary sent the message to Secretary Teddyboy Locsin and the latter signed the notice of termination as sent to the US government today," Panelo said.
In response to the Philippines’ moves, the US government says abrogating the agreement will have "significant implications" on relations between the two countries.
“This is a serious step with significant implications for the U.S.-Philippines alliance. We will carefully consider how best to move forward to advance our shared interests,” the US said.
“Our two countries enjoy a warm relationship, deeply rooted in history. We remain committed to the friendship between our two peoples,” it added.
With the Philippines' formal notice signed, termination will take place 180 days or 6 months after the US received written notification.
March 9, 2020
Nearly a month after the Philippines sent its notice of termination to the US, Philippine senators ask the Supreme Court (SC) to compel Duterte to seek the Senate’s concurrence in terminating the military deal.
Senators file a petition for declaratory relief and mandamus. Declaratory relief means they want the SC to clarify questions of law, while mandamus seeks to compel the respondents to do something.
Senate President Vicente Sotto III, a Duterte ally, tries to temper the upper chamber’s move, saying it is not an “affront” to Duterte but a mere reflection of the senators’ wish to clarify what the law provides.
March 10, 2020
After the Senate’s move, Duterte asserts he wants the deal scrapped.
“They cannot compel me. I refuse to be compelled,” Duterte says.
Duterte adds that he is counting down the 180th day, when US forces will finally “pack up and go” and the VFA will no longer be in effect.
“I am not reneging on the VFA and I am not going to America to discuss this with anybody,” the President says.
June 2, 2020
Nearly 4 month after the Philippines sent its notice of termination, Locsin announces the suspension has been paused, owing to “political and other developments in the region.”
The foreign secretary says Washington has received Manila’s notice and “well at that.”
The Philippine government’s latest notice to the US buys it time for further steps. Manila’s note says the suspension, effective on June 1, “shall continue for 6 months” and can extend for another half year after.
After 6 or 12 months, the Philippines says its original notice of suspension, which terminates the agreement in 180 days from February 11, will be in effect again. – Rappler.com